Friday, October 10, 2008

A Day in the Life of the Bank of Japan's Foreign Exchange Dealers

Outline of the Bank of Japan's Foreign Exchange Intervention OperationsJuly 2000Bank of JapanFinancial Markets DepartmentForeign Exchange Division
I. Introduction
Since the introduction of a floating exchange rate system in February 1973, the Japanese economy has experienced large fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, with the yen on a long rising trend. In order to mitigate the negative influence of such fluctuations on the Japanese economy, foreign exchange market interventions (hereafter "foreign exchange interventions" or simply "interventions") have been conducted from time to time. Although, these interventions have occasionally been reported in newspapers and other news media, the actual operational procedures seem not to be well understood. This article will therefore briefly explain the basics of foreign exchange intervention, focusing on the practical side.
The next section begins with the definition of foreign exchange intervention and goes on to outline its legal status. Section III explains the operation of intervention, including the decision-making procedures. The last section deals with the funding and foreign exchange reserve management that accompany foreign exchange intervention.
II. What Is Foreign Exchange Intervention?
A. Definition and the Legal Status of Intervention
Foreign exchange intervention is defined generally as foreign exchange transactions conducted by the monetary authorities with the aim of influencing exchange rates. In Japan, the Minister of Finance is legally authorized to conduct intervention as a means to achieve foreign exchange rate stability.1 The Bank of Japan, as the agent of the Minister of Finance, executes foreign exchange intervention operations in accordance with the directions of the Minister of Finance.2 The expression "Bank of Japan Intervention," often used in newspapers and other news media, might therefore be misleading (for an international comparison of foreign exchange intervention systems, please refer to the appendix).
1 The Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law stipulates that the "Minister of Finance shall endeavor to stabilize the external value of the yen through foreign exchange trading and other measures" (Article 7, Section 3).
2 The Bank of Japan Law stipulates that the Bank buy and sell foreign exchange "as the agent of the government......,when its purpose is to stabilize the exchange rate of the national currency" (Article 40, Section 2). The Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Law stipulates that the Minister of Finance may entrust operations involving the Foreign Exchange Fund that are stipulated in the Article 5 to the Bank of Japan (Article 6, Section 1).
B. Types of Foreign Exchange Intervention
Foreign exchange interventions are usually conducted in the Tokyo market. However, as most of the trading shifts to European markets after around 5:00 p.m. JST and then to the New York market, in cases where it is considered necessary to intervene during these hours, the Bank of Japan, as the agent of the Minister of Finance, requests foreign monetary authorities to conduct interventions on behalf of the Bank ("entrustment intervention"). The final decision to use this method is made by the Minister of Finance. The details of the intervention including the amount, currency pair, and method of intervention are also determined by the Minister. The funds necessary for intervention come from the Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account (explained later) irrespective of the market where the interventions are conducted.3 Similarly, when foreign monetary authorities need to intervene in the Tokyo market, the Bank can conduct interventions on their behalf upon request ("reverse-entrustment intervention").4
There are cases where two or more monetary authorities implement intervention jointly by using their own funds at the same time or in succession. This is called "coordinated intervention."
3 "Entrustment intervention" means intervention that is conducted in overseas markets with funds of the Japanese authorities. It is different from the intervention that is conducted in overseas markets with funds of respective foreign monetary authorities.
4 The funds of foreign monetary authorities are used in this kind of intervention.
C. Purpose of Foreign Exchange Intervention
The Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law stipulates that the Minister of Finance shall endeavor to stabilize the external value of the yen by taking necessary measures including foreign exchange transactions.
III. Operational Procedures of Foreign Exchange Intervention
The Bank of Japan conducts foreign exchange intervention operations as the agent of the Minister of Finance, as mentioned earlier. The sections engaged in and responsible for intervention operations are the Foreign Exchange Division of the Financial Markets Department (hereafter BOJ Forex Division) and the Planning and Coordination Division of the International Department.5
5 Before the reorganization of May 2000, as a result of which dealers moved to the Financial Markets Department from the International Department, the former Foreign Exchange Division of the International Department had sole responsibility for the operation. In view of the ever closer linkages between domestic and foreign financial markets and the increasingly active cross-border flow of funds, it is expected that both monitoring and analytical ability will be greatly enhanced by the reorganization.
A. Collecting Information
The BOJ Forex Division closely monitors and analyzes developments in foreign exchange markets day and night through frequent contact with market participants, the Bank's overseas offices, and foreign central banks, as well as utilizing the services of information vendors. In addition, the Forex Division carries out research on developments in the areas which relate to the foreign exchange markets, such as developments in overseas securities and stock markets and commodity prices.
Information gathered in these ways is passed to the Policy Board and other related sections in the Bank as one of the factors on which a judgement of the state of financial and business activities in the Japanese economy is based.6 As the agent of the Minister of Finance, the BOJ Forex Division reports such information every day also to the Foreign Exchange and Money Market Division of the International Bureau of the Ministry of Finance (hereafter MOF Forex Division), which is in charge of foreign exchange intervention in the Ministry.
6 The Bank of Japan provides the public with information on the foreign exchange market through pre-recorded telephone services. This information includes the highest and lowest values as well as turnover, and is revised every hour. (, Japanese only)
B. Foreign Exchange Intervention Decision-Making
When foreign exchange rate developments are regarded as too volatile, the MOF Forex Division gets in touch with the BOJ Forex Division on the hot line, and is supplied with the background information on the volatile movements and other relevant information for making decision on intervention.
If the Minister of Finance decides to conduct intervention based on such information, the MOF Forex Division gives the BOJ Forex Division specific directions for the intervention. The Minister of Finance determines the details taking into consideration various factors in the foreign exchange markets in order to maximize the effectiveness and efficiency of the intervention. The BOJ Forex Division continues to monitor the market developments in parallel with the intervention and provides the MOF Forex Division with information, such as market reactions to it. There are cases where the method of intervention is modified based on the Bank's report.
C. Settlement
Once a dealer of the Bank reaches agreement on the terms of a transaction and makes a contract with the counterparty, the back office takes care of the remainder of the business. The back office in the Planning and Coordination Division of the Bank's International Department is responsible for confirming the terms of contracts made by dealers in the front office and also for carrying out the transactions (i.e., settlement).
Confirmation is done by matching the terms of contracts with the counterparties over the telephone or by SWIFT,7 based on the contract records kept by the dealers. Having confirmed the contract, the back office proceeds to settlement. Settlement for an intervention is made, in principle, through the authorities' accounts at the central bank whose currency is the subject of the intervention.
7 Abbreviation for The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, a data telecommunication system for transmitting messages relating to international banking transactions. The headquarters of the system is located in Brussels, and the Bank of Japan has been a member since 1987.
IV. Financing and Investment of Funds for Foreign Exchange Intervention
This section will briefly explain how interventions are financed as well as the basic policy for the investment of foreign exchange reserves, which have been accumulated partly as a result of interventions.
Intervention by the Bank of Japan as the agent of the Minister of Finance is conducted by the account of the Japanese Government, which is called the Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account (hereafter FEFSA).8 This fund consists of foreign currency funds and yen funds. In case of U.S. dollar buying/yen selling intervention, for example, the yen funds to be sold are raised by issuing Financing Bills (FBs). In the event of U.S. dollar selling/yen buying intervention, U.S. dollar funds held in the FEFSA are used for buying the yen in the markets.
The Japanese Government holds large amounts of foreign currencies in the FEFSA, partly as a result of foreign currency buying/yen selling interventions in past yen appreciation phases. The Minister of Finance makes decisions on investments of these currencies paying careful attention to liquidity and safety. Most of these funds have been invested in securities issued by the authorities of major industrial countries, which are almost immune from liquidity risk. The back office also plays a role in the implementation of such foreign currency funds investment.
8 The FEFSA system consists of two elements: the Foreign Exchange Fund and the narrowly defined Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account. The former is a fund prepared for foreign exchange trading by the Government. Purchases/sales of foreign exchange by this fund are not recorded as the revenues/expenses of the Government. In the latter, results of trading such as (1) profits/losses arising from foreign exchange trading and (2) payment/receipt of interest arising from fund-raising/investment accompaning foreign exchange intervention are recorded as the revenues/expenses of the Government.

(Appendix)
Systems of Foreign Exchange Intervention Abroad
United States
Euro Area
United Kingdom
Authority for Intervention
Government (Treasury Department) and Federal Reserve Board (FRB)-- Government has priority with regard to the decision.
European Central Bank (ECB)Intervention should be consistent with the general orientations formulated by ECOFIN.The general orientations are formulated after consulting the ECB, or on a recommendation from the ECB and "shall be without prejudice to the primary objective of the ESCB to maintain price stability."
Government (the Treasury) and Bank of England-- Intervention by BOE is restricted to occasions when it is necessary to attain the monetary policy objective.
Operation of intervention
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
ECB
BOE
Funds for intervention
Government (Foreign Exchange Stabilization Fund) and FRB (usually, each finances half of the amount used for intervention). Intervention results are reported to the Congress every quarter (also published in Federal Reserve Bulletin).
ECB
Government (Foreign Exchange Operation Account) and BOE. The Treasury is planning to disclose intervention on a monthly and quarterly basis on its Web site.
(Box)
A Day in the Life of the Bank of Japan's Foreign Exchange Dealers
-- Written by Masafumi Yamamoto, Foreign Exchange Division
Foreign exchange dealers are, in general, very early birds, and dealers at the Bank of Japan are no exception. We start work before 7:00 a.m. JST when morning trading in the Sydney market in Australia, which starts two hours earlier, peaks out. Our first job is to get ready for the morning market reports meeting by gathering, sorting, and analyzing information. We first check the previous day's developments in the New York and European foreign exchange markets, and then make our own forecasts for the day by listing up bull and bear factors as well as by exchanging views with market participants.
Information we gather ranges over various areas such as economic indicators, statements by high officials, political events, holidays, and rumors circulating in the market. All kinds of media are utilized, including paper media (newspapers, fax news services, magazines), on-line media (computer on-line services, e-mail communication), and voice (telephone conversations). As the volume of information is tremendous, and there is both useful and useless information, we have to screen it and formulate our own view.
There is no time for rest even after the morning meeting. Recently, the improvement in on-line communication media has made it easy for anyone to obtain global information on a real-time basis, dramatically increasing the efficiency of information gathering. However, as the whole market reacts simultaneously even to trivial news, we have to be alert at all times. It is often the case that foreign exchange rates fluctuate abruptly due to unexpected factors. This means that the market has to be analyzed from the standpoints of various areas such as macroeconomic analysis, time-series analysis (which requires sophisticated econometric methods), historical studies, political analysis, and even astrology. Thus, we have to keep on obtaining and analyzing information throughout the day.
Although electronic media have become so popular and useful that we are not able to live without them, conversations over the phone with market participants are still vital for monitoring the markets. Market participants' views occasionally differ significantly and it is often the case that subtle changes in their sentiment gradually grow to a strong trend in exchange rates. Frequent contacts with market participants are the most effective way to remain sensitive to market developments. Communication with market participants is also an important channel for providing them with accurate information on the Bank's monetary policy stance and on the statements of the Bank's officials and thus helps to prevent market reaction arising from misunderstanding.
We look most active when we are conducting intervention. The Bank of Japan, as the agent of the Minister of Finance, conducts foreign exchange transactions (i.e., intervention) in order to stabilize the yen's value. This is stipulated in laws such as the "Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Law" and the "Bank of Japan Law." Specifically, the Foreign Exchange Division is the operational unit of intervention. When a large fluctuation in the yen is expected to have significant negative effects on the economy, the hot line connected to the Ministry of Finance rings. Several dealers and back-up staff members are quickly on standby, and the tension builds up in the dealing room. When intervention is decided, the room is thrown into an uproar as the dealers and the chief dealer shout their orders and directions.
After 5:00 p.m. JST, the majority of trading shifts to the European market, and usually, the Bank's representative offices in Europe and the United States take over the task of monitoring. It is not until then that we are released from the high tension that started in the early morning. However, when the exchange rates show too much volatility, we cannot close our business even after the Tokyo market closes. It is not uncommon that we continue monitoring during European and U.S. trading time by contacting dealers in overseas markets and people in charge of monitoring foreign exchange markets at foreign central banks. When the Bank of Japan requests foreign central banks to conduct interventions on behalf of the Bank, senior officials of the Bank play the roles of liaison and broker between the Minister of Finance and the foreign central banks. When this happens, work often continues till dawn.

Financing and Investment of Funds for Foreign Exchange Intervention

This section will briefly explain how interventions are financed as well as the basic policy for the investment of foreign exchange reserves, which have been accumulated partly as a result of interventions.
Intervention by the Bank of Japan as the agent of the Minister of Finance is conducted by the account of the Japanese Government, which is called the Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account (hereafter FEFSA).8 This fund consists of foreign currency funds and yen funds. In case of U.S. dollar buying/yen selling intervention, for example, the yen funds to be sold are raised by issuing Financing Bills (FBs). In the event of U.S. dollar selling/yen buying intervention, U.S. dollar funds held in the FEFSA are used for buying the yen in the markets.
The Japanese Government holds large amounts of foreign currencies in the FEFSA, partly as a result of foreign currency buying/yen selling interventions in past yen appreciation phases. The Minister of Finance makes decisions on investments of these currencies paying careful attention to liquidity and safety. Most of these funds have been invested in securities issued by the authorities of major industrial countries, which are almost immune from liquidity risk. The back office also plays a role in the implementation of such foreign currency funds investment.
8 The FEFSA system consists of two elements: the Foreign Exchange Fund and the narrowly defined Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account. The former is a fund prepared for foreign exchange trading by the Government. Purchases/sales of foreign exchange by this fund are not recorded as the revenues/expenses of the Government. In the latter, results of trading such as (1) profits/losses arising from foreign exchange trading and (2) payment/receipt of interest arising from fund-raising/investment accompaning foreign exchange intervention are recorded as the revenues/expenses of the Government.

Operational Procedures of Foreign Exchange Intervention

The Bank of Japan conducts foreign exchange intervention operations as the agent of the Minister of Finance, as mentioned earlier. The sections engaged in and responsible for intervention operations are the Foreign Exchange Division of the Financial Markets Department (hereafter BOJ Forex Division) and the Planning and Coordination Division of the International Department.5
5 Before the reorganization of May 2000, as a result of which dealers moved to the Financial Markets Department from the International Department, the former Foreign Exchange Division of the International Department had sole responsibility for the operation. In view of the ever closer linkages between domestic and foreign financial markets and the increasingly active cross-border flow of funds, it is expected that both monitoring and analytical ability will be greatly enhanced by the reorganization.
A. Collecting Information
The BOJ Forex Division closely monitors and analyzes developments in foreign exchange markets day and night through frequent contact with market participants, the Bank's overseas offices, and foreign central banks, as well as utilizing the services of information vendors. In addition, the Forex Division carries out research on developments in the areas which relate to the foreign exchange markets, such as developments in overseas securities and stock markets and commodity prices.
Information gathered in these ways is passed to the Policy Board and other related sections in the Bank as one of the factors on which a judgement of the state of financial and business activities in the Japanese economy is based.6 As the agent of the Minister of Finance, the BOJ Forex Division reports such information every day also to the Foreign Exchange and Money Market Division of the International Bureau of the Ministry of Finance (hereafter MOF Forex Division), which is in charge of foreign exchange intervention in the Ministry.
6 The Bank of Japan provides the public with information on the foreign exchange market through pre-recorded telephone services. This information includes the highest and lowest values as well as turnover, and is revised every hour. (, Japanese only)
B. Foreign Exchange Intervention Decision-Making
When foreign exchange rate developments are regarded as too volatile, the MOF Forex Division gets in touch with the BOJ Forex Division on the hot line, and is supplied with the background information on the volatile movements and other relevant information for making decision on intervention.
If the Minister of Finance decides to conduct intervention based on such information, the MOF Forex Division gives the BOJ Forex Division specific directions for the intervention. The Minister of Finance determines the details taking into consideration various factors in the foreign exchange markets in order to maximize the effectiveness and efficiency of the intervention. The BOJ Forex Division continues to monitor the market developments in parallel with the intervention and provides the MOF Forex Division with information, such as market reactions to it. There are cases where the method of intervention is modified based on the Bank's report.
C. Settlement
Once a dealer of the Bank reaches agreement on the terms of a transaction and makes a contract with the counterparty, the back office takes care of the remainder of the business. The back office in the Planning and Coordination Division of the Bank's International Department is responsible for confirming the terms of contracts made by dealers in the front office and also for carrying out the transactions (i.e., settlement).
Confirmation is done by matching the terms of contracts with the counterparties over the telephone or by SWIFT,7 based on the contract records kept by the dealers. Having confirmed the contract, the back office proceeds to settlement. Settlement for an intervention is made, in principle, through the authorities' accounts at the central bank whose currency is the subject of the intervention.
7 Abbreviation for The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, a data telecommunication system for transmitting messages relating to international banking transactions. The headquarters of the system is located in Brussels, and the Bank of Japan has been a member since 1987.

What Is Foreign Exchange Intervention?

A. Definition and the Legal Status of Intervention

Foreign exchange intervention is defined generally as foreign exchange transactions conducted by the monetary authorities with the aim of influencing exchange rates. In Japan, the Minister of Finance is legally authorized to conduct intervention as a means to achieve foreign exchange rate stability.1 The Bank of Japan, as the agent of the Minister of Finance, executes foreign exchange intervention operations in accordance with the directions of the Minister of Finance.2 The expression "Bank of Japan Intervention," often used in newspapers and other news media, might therefore be misleading (for an international comparison of foreign exchange intervention systems, please refer to the appendix).




1 The Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law stipulates that the "Minister of Finance shall endeavor to stabilize the external value of the yen through foreign exchange trading and other measures" (Article 7, Section 3).

2 The Bank of Japan Law stipulates that the Bank buy and sell foreign exchange "as the agent of the government......,when its purpose is to stabilize the exchange rate of the national currency" (Article 40, Section 2). The Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Law stipulates that the Minister of Finance may entrust operations involving the Foreign Exchange Fund that are stipulated in the Article 5 to the Bank of Japan (Article 6, Section 1).

B. Types of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Foreign exchange interventions are usually conducted in the Tokyo market. However, as most of the trading shifts to European markets after around 5:00 p.m. JST and then to the New York market, in cases where it is considered necessary to intervene during these hours, the Bank of Japan, as the agent of the Minister of Finance, requests foreign monetary authorities to conduct interventions on behalf of the Bank ("entrustment intervention"). The final decision to use this method is made by the Minister of Finance. The details of the intervention including the amount, currency pair, and method of intervention are also determined by the Minister. The funds necessary for intervention come from the Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account (explained later) irrespective of the market where the interventions are conducted.3 Similarly, when foreign monetary authorities need to intervene in the Tokyo market, the Bank can conduct interventions on their behalf upon request ("reverse-entrustment intervention").4

There are cases where two or more monetary authorities implement intervention jointly by using their own funds at the same time or in succession. This is called "coordinated intervention."




3 "Entrustment intervention" means intervention that is conducted in overseas markets with funds of the Japanese authorities. It is different from the intervention that is conducted in overseas markets with funds of respective foreign monetary authorities.

4 The funds of foreign monetary authorities are used in this kind of intervention.

C. Purpose of Foreign Exchange Intervention

The Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law stipulates that the Minister of Finance shall endeavor to stabilize the external value of the yen by taking necessary measures including foreign exchange transactions.

Introduction

Since the introduction of a floating exchange rate system in February 1973, the Japanese economy has experienced large fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, with the yen on a long rising trend. In order to mitigate the negative influence of such fluctuations on the Japanese economy, foreign exchange market interventions (hereafter "foreign exchange interventions" or simply "interventions") have been conducted from time to time. Although, these interventions have occasionally been reported in newspapers and other news media, the actual operational procedures seem not to be well understood. This article will therefore briefly explain the basics of foreign exchange intervention, focusing on the practical side.

The next section begins with the definition of foreign exchange intervention and goes on to outline its legal status. Section III explains the operation of intervention, including the decision-making procedures. The last section deals with the funding and foreign exchange reserve management that accompany foreign exchange intervention.

Outline of the Bank of Japan's Foreign Exchange Intervention Operations

Bank of Japan
Financial Markets Department
Foreign Exchange Division

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Monday, October 6, 2008

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Market Commentary Australia

The Australian dollar closed the week at a near 14-month low as well, as the liquidation of both commodities and carry trades continues. Any recovery should be only temporary.

Australian manufacturing improved 0.2 points to 47.2 in September from August, when it gained 0.1 points, according to the Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers. But it remains below the key 50 mark.

Surging exports of coal and iron ore boosted Australia's trade balance from a deficit of A$697 million in July to the second-biggest surplus on record A$1.36 billion in August.

Market Commentary Switzerland

The dollar/Swiss franc rallied sharply last week but not as much as dollar/euro.

The Swiss PMI fell to 47.8 in September from 52.5 in August.

Market Commentary Canada

The Canadian dollar closed the week at a near 14-month low, amid widespread liquidation of both commodities and carry trades. Any recovery should be temporary.

Canada’s economy grew a mammoth 0.7 percent in July, due to a surge in crude oil and natural gas production from June’s + 0.1 percent.

Market Commentary The UK

The pound sank as well under the weight of the credit crunch, housing problems and slowing economy. But it fared better than the euro.

The Bank of England’s measure of mortgage approvals fell to a new record low of 32,000 in August from 33,000 in July, and this is 75 percent below their peak. The crisis continues, as expected.


Not exactly unexpectedly, the net balance of lenders reporting a decline in the availability of secured credit to households was 39 percent in the three months to September. This was slightly better than the 47 percent fall reported in the three months to June.


Also, the Nationwide House prices contracted 1.7 percent in Septemberon top of -1.9 percent in August. On a yearly basis they fell 12.4 percent from -10.5 percent.

The current account deficit widened to 11 billion pounds, the largest in three quarters.

The manufacturing PMI fell to 41 in September from 45.3 the previous month, the lowest since the report began in January 1992, services PMI contacted to 46 in September, the lowest since the gauge began in 1996, from 49.2 in August, and the PMI construction fell to 38.8 in September from 40.5 in August.

The gross domestic product was unrevised at flat in the second quarter but was revised upward to 1.5 percent on a yearly basis from the previous estimate of 1.4 percent. In addition, services grew 0.2 percent from the first quarter, the weakest pace since 1995.

To make a long story short, the UK is probably already in its first recession since 1991, so the BoE must cut interest rates.

Market Commentary Japan

The dollar/Japanese yen remains the odd major pair out, and its lack of direction should continue. Yen crosses should help with direction.

Japanese retail trade rose to +0.7 percent in August from +0.1 percent in July, but slowed to 0.7 percent on a yearly basis from 2.0 percent.

That was the exception to the rule, as the rest of the economic data was atrocious.

Industrial production contracted 3.5 percent in August, the fastest pace in at least five years, after expanding 1.3 percent in July, while the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 4.2 percent from 4.0 percent previously and household spending contracted 4 percent, the most since September 2006, after -0.5 percent previously.




Housing starts for 53.6 percent in August on the year from 19.0 percent previously.

Construction orders contracted 0.3 percent in August on an annual basis from +42.3 percent in July.

The index of small business confidence slipped to 40.2 in September from 41.4 previously.

On this milieu, the Tankan index of confidence among big makers of cars and electronics fell to -3 in the third quarter from 5 in the second quarter. This is the first time that pessimists outnumbered optimists since 2003.

Market Commentary The Eurozone

The euro suffered colossal losses, as long liquidation has been taking its toll. The money markets in the Eurozone remain basically frozen, and the 3-month euro interbank rates climbing to a record high. The financial crisis spread further in Europe last week, and Fortis was rescued by a 11.2 billion euros package from the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The troubles are piling high and fast.

The Eurozone PPI contracted 0.5 percent in August after expanding 1.3 percent in July, and decreased to 8.5 percent on the year from 9.2 percent. On this milieu, ECB head Trichet sounded confusing (sort of standard for central banks heads): risks for future growth to the downside, but no cutting of borrowing costs. With the Eurozone economy weakening, this talk is euro bearish.

The Eurozone services confidence index was flat in September 0 from 3 in August, the consumer confidence was stable at –19, the industrial confidence worsened to -12 from –10, the business climate indicator to -0.79 from -0.33, and the economic confidence to 87.7 from 88.8.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone retail PMI fell to 46.2 in September from 47.7 in August.

But the Eurozone PMI services managed to edge up to 48.4 in September from 48.2 in August. On an individual basis, the German PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.3, while the French PMI slipped to 50.1 from 50.4.

The Eurozone retail sales rose 0.3 percent in August but contracted 1.8 percent on the year. That monthly strength won’t last, as the regional economy is going down the drain.

German unemployment fell by 29,000 to 3.18 million in September after falling 40,000 in August. The ILO jobless rate was 7.2 percent, down from 7.3 percent in July. It is 7.3 percent in France it and 4 percent in Japan.


German retail sales expanded 3.1 percent in August after contracting an upwardly revised -1.0 percent in July. That number is too exotic, so it should be reversed next month. On the year, sales sank 3.0 percent from 0.6 percent previously.


The Eurozone unemployment rate climbed up to 7.5 percent in August from 7.4 percent in July, economic slowdown is spreading.



The final Eurozone PMI came in at 45.0 in September from 45.3 previously. On an individual basis, the German report fell to 47.4 from 48.1 and the French PMI to 43.0 from 43.6.


The EurozoneCPI probably peaked in July at a record 4.1 percent annual basis, after the August and September preliminary reports came in at 3.8 percent and then 3.6 percent, respectively.

Along the same lines, French PPI fell 0.5 percent in August from 0.7 percent in July, and slipped to 6.9 percent from 7.7 percent on a yearly basis.

Also, Italian PPI fell 0.2 percent in August from 0.8 percent previously and to 8.2 percent from 8.7 percent on the year.

Market Commentary United States

All in not well on our financial body. The organs seem to be in satisfactory condition, but the blood is not really circulating. The rapid changes of fortunes among the top firms did not bring a solution to the crisis, but created a short-term period of grace. But it’s grace under fire. The Federal Reserve's lending surged by a record $285 billion last week, and discount window borrowings rose $10.2 billion to $49.5 billion, as the financial crisis has been worsening.

The dollar exploded higher against the European currencies, initially after the House of Representatives unexpectedly failed to ratify the Bush administration's $700 billion TARP to rescue banks, and then on expectations that the House will actually pass the TARP by the end of the week. But it edged slightly lower on Friday after the House of Representatives (finally) approved the $700 billion TARP in a 263-171 vote. The revised plan is expected to thaw the frozen credit markets, but the traders doubt it will fail to prevent an economic recession.

We are not alone in this historical crisis. The European banking system is also under fire.

The acceleration of the downturn in Europe and the lack of liquidity underpinned demand for dollars. French President Sarkozy said the France is basically in recession. The fallout from the failed initial $700 billion bailout for Wall Street accelerated the financial crisis, which spilled over Europe (B&B in the UK, Fortis in Benelux, and West LB in Germany). Germany struggled to rescue lender Hypo Real Estate, and Ireland promised to guarantee all bank deposits. But the 300 billion euros Euro-TARP proposed by France was promptly torpedoed by Germany. EU governments to breach deficit limits, saying the financial crisis was so severe they could waive their usual strict application of budget rules.

It was the first time the EU appeared ready to invoke a 2005 clause that allows countries to bend the rules laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact if they fall victim to exceptional events outside their control.

Another week, another big name gone from the US financial roster– this time, Wachovia was initially morphed into Citigroup, just to switch out on Friday and merge with Wells Fargo, outside the realm of the FDIC. But the high-stake drama continues; Citigroup won a court order late on Saturday blocking Wells Fargo from buying Wachovia Corp until the court rules otherwise.

Surprisingly, the US jobless data, horrible as it was, only mattered for about 60 pips of nervous trading. It’s gotten so bad that this key report was put on the back burner, as in “what did you expect?” While the number might have been skewed by the tropical storms down south, don’t hope for an improvement – the opposite will happen. Payrolls fell by a more than expected 159,000 in September after a, upwardly revised 73,000 decline (from –84,000) in August and downwardly revised –67,000 from –60,000 in July. The jobless rate remained at 6.1 percent but only because it surged 0.4 percent a month earlier.


Initial jobless claims increased 1,000 to 497,000 in the week that ended September 27 from an upwardly revised (as nearly 100% of the times) 496,000 (initially 493,000) the prior week. What happened to the “exceptionally” high number from the previous week? Haven’t the tropical storms passed already? Let’s not kid ourselves, the total number of people collecting benefits is the highest since 2003.


For all it’s worth, the ADP's decline of 8,000 in private employment in September from 37,000 the month before was modest.

Consumer spending was flat in August from a revised +0.1 percent in July. Personal income rose by 0.5 percent after a revised 0.6 percent drop, the personal savings rate fell to 1 percent from 1.9 percent in July, while the disposable income fell by 0.9 percent after -.8 percent.


The Conference Board's confidence index increased to 59.8 September, a third consecutive increase, from 58.5 in August. That’s nice but irrelevant, since the survey was taken before the most recent financial meltdown.


In the same vein, the Chicago Purchasing Management index fell to 56.7 in September from 57.9 the prior month.


The ISM manufacturing index collapsed to 43.5 in September from 49.9 in August. This is a recessionary level as the credit crunch is strangulating the economy. Looking into details, new orders fell to 38.8 from 48.3, production to 40.8 from 52.1, and employment to 41.8 from 49.7.


Construction spending was flat in August after falling 1.4 percent in July.

Factory goods orders contracted 4 percent in August, as orders for motor vehicles succumbed 10.6 percent, the most since December 2002.


Elsewhere, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city index fell 0.9 percent in July and 16.3 percent on the year.